Dick Jauron2008BUF25 Bill BelichickNE1621+164+761 COACHTEAMSEASONSPLAYOFF WINSBEFORE 2015DURING 2015CHANCE OF FIRING Ron RiveraCAR51+145+1543 Pete CarrollSEA67+276-37<1 Chuck PaganoIND43+173-316 Mike ZimmerMIN20+4+995 Dan QuinnATL10—+6<1 Dave Campo2001DAL39 Jim TomsulaSF10—-103<1 Jason GarrettDAL61+141-11735 John Mackovic1985KC28 Mike McCarthyGB107+136+202 Mike PettineCLE20+32-8319 Herman Edwards2007KC47% Chan Gailey2011BUF28 The idea here is to measure what sort of team performance, somewhat devoid of context, would get a typical coach fired. You’ll notice in the table that Marvin Lewis — a coach pretty unlikely to be fired — is third on this list; that’s mainly because he’s been with the Bengals for 13 years and has zero playoff wins. The real world context is that while that is a broadly undesirable outcome, the Bengals being the Bengals, the team has more than exceeded the existential target of being Not The Browns. (You can see the lasting improvement that Lewis has brought to Cincinnati in the “before 2015″ column, which shows how much the team’s Elo rating improved between the time he got the job and the beginning of this season.) So Marv, like Chip, is probably fine, for reasons that are very different but just as amusing.As for Kelly, he’s in his third year of his tenure with a club, after winning zero playoff games in Years 1 and 2 — a scenario that has traditionally been the death zone for NFL coaches. Coaches in that predicament must show progress to keep their jobs: Roughly two-thirds of surviving coaches improved their team’s Elo rating (relative to preseason expectations) in Year 3, while nearly three-quarters of those fired oversaw an Elo decline from the preseason. So the Eagles’ 86.4-point Elo drop this season doesn’t look good for Kelly — since 1970, only 15 of the 128 coaches in Kelly’s position (Year 3 with a team, no previous playoff victories) oversaw a bigger drop-off in Elo through 11 games of the schedule, and two-thirds of them were fired before the following season began. John FoxCHI10—+50<1 Sometimes coaches still survive odds like Kelly’s. This table shows the coaches whose jobs were in the most jeopardy 11 games into a season yet went on to keep the job. But if Kelly does manage to stick with Philly beyond this season, he would set a new mark for unlikely job retention.Kelly’s trajectory wasn’t always so negative. After Philly beat Dallas in early November to make their record 4-4, there was only about a 5 percent chance that Kelly would be fired according to the model. But the Eagles’ current three-game losing streak has caused his probability of being fired to skyrocket: Things look bad for Chip Kelly and his Eagles. Fans are calling for his head; discord is rampant in the locker room; Kelly seems to be linked to every college job not nailed down or on fire; and the Eagles have found themselves on the receiving end of consecutive beatdowns so humiliating that mayor-turned-governor-turned-commentator Ed Rendell — a man last seen in public supplication outside a McDonald’s, begging for a McRib — was so ashamed that he hid his head in a bag. If Kelly is the NFL’s mad scientist, the lab is on fire.In the short term, Kelly is probably safe. He has two years left on his contract after 2015, and his newfound authority over Philadelphia’s roster — wrestled away from Howie Roseman in a power struggle in January — makes him a little more entrenched than your typical head coach. But the Eagles have also been one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams, by both the eye test and fancier metrics. So while Kelly the personnel czar still has some rope, we can entertain ourselves with a thought exercise wondering just how often such a disastrous season traditionally leads to a coaching change.To measure just what it takes for a coach to get fired in the NFL, I trained a classification model on data for every NFL coach since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, looking for the factors that predict whether he’ll return the following season. The best model, in terms of having the lowest “out-of-bag error,” accounts for how long a coach has been with his team, the team’s outlook going into the season, and how many playoff wins the coach has recorded during his tenure with the team. Coaches are typically given more leeway early, with firings peaking three to six years into their tenures, and unsurprisingly, playoff wins buy more job security. We used our Elo ratings as a proxy for team outlook; whatever you think of its predictive capabilities, Elo is a fantastic gauge of team perception and expectations.According to that historical rubric, no current coach1So, excluding Joe Philbin and Ken Whisenhunt, both of whom were fired earlier this season. should be feeling the heat more than Kelly, whose indicators have traditionally led to termination a shade over half the time (through 11 games): Gus BradleyJAX30+8-1851 Mike McCoySD31+32-1055 Neill Armstrong1980CHI22 Sean PaytonNO96+94-7619 Bill O’BrienHOU20+120+10<1 Jack Del RioOAK10—+37<1 Gary KubiakDEN10—+66<1 Sam Wyche1994TB30 Jim CaldwellDET20+66-645 John Mazur1971NE29 Rex RyanBUF10—-22<1 Jeff FisherSTL40+124-5613 Chip KellyPHI30+144-8652% Lovie SmithTB20-59+4517 COACHYEARTEAMCHANCE OF FIRING John HarbaughBAL810+117-741 Marvin LewisCIN130+184+10140 Dave McGinnis2002ARI21 Bruce AriansARI30+120+125<1 Tom CoughlinNYG128+81+217 Andy ReidKC30+185+841 Todd BowlesNYJ10—+34<1 Jay GrudenWAS20-28+55<1 Mike TomlinPIT95-6+24 Jim Hanifan1983CRD26 ELO CHANGE There’s still time for Kelly to turn things around. For one, the average coach who was fired since 1970 was assigned a 76 percent probability by the model at this stage of the season, so Kelly, at 52 percent, has some room left to fall. Second, despite their abiding awfulness, the Eagles somehow have a 15 percent chance of winning the NFC East, which would put a little shine on the turd. Although one of the most similar coaching seasons to Kelly’s2In terms of the arc his probability of being fired has taken each week. resulted in Wade Phillips being fired by the Denver Broncos in 1994, other similar years belonged to coaches who held on for another year (Bruce Coslet with the 1993 Jets) or even unexpectedly went to a Super Bowl a year later (Jim Fassel with the 2000 Giants).However the season plays out, Kelly will probably hang onto his job — particularly given the personnel control matter we mentioned earlier. But based on what typically gets coaches fired, Kelly should be thankful that he’ll (probably) remain employed when the smoke clears on this garbage fire, because historical precedent says it should pretty much be a coin flip whether he gets swept out with the ashes. read more

first_imgUnion Finance Minister Arun Jaitley at the 21st GST Council meeting in Hyderabad on Sept 9, 2017. Also seen Union MoS Finance Shiv Pratap Shukla, Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia and Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian.IANSWith less than 15 days before the Union Budget 2018 is presented, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council plans to cut rates on as many as 70 items in its next meeting, reported Business Standard.It is also learnt that the council can amend rules to simplify filing of GST returns and also plug some existing loopholes in the system.”Around 40-50 services will be taken up for a rate revision in the council meeting. These are services that were earlier exempt but were taxed under the GST regime. They are facing issues,” a government official told the business daily.After the implementation of GST, the Union Finance Ministry has no discretionary capacity to bring in changes in indirect taxes; GST council has been given the exclusive authority in terms of indirect taxes.The official further said the council is likely to prune the rates for agriculture implements — a move to boost agricultural sector, which is reeling under pressure.Earlier this week, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the agriculture sector would be given the top priority by the government in Union Budget 2018.”Among the priority areas, the agriculture sector is on top. Ensuring the benefits reaches the agri-sector and growth is visible — this is among the priority areas for us,” Jaitley said.The meeting is scheduled for Thursday, January 18. This is the last council meeting before the finance minister presents the Union Budget on February 1.”Agriculture implements that are currently taxed up to 18 percent may come under the 12-percent or the 5-percent bracket,” the official said.He added that the council may bring in some change in tax rates of bio-diesel buses. Currently, bio-diesel buses attract the highest slab of GST, i.e. 28 percent, which may be revised downward.On the services front, job works may be allowed as part of the composition scheme, which will imply a flat rate of tax and easier compliance, reported BS.”Currently, only a few services such as housekeeping, carpentry, etc., are subject to 18 percent GST, if provided through an e-commerce platform, without the benefit of the threshold limit of Rs 20 lakh. We are expecting the rate to be reduced to 5 percent in such cases. Many job work services could also come under lower rate,” the business daily quoted Pratik Jain, partner, PwC India, as saying.last_img read more

first_img 2 min read Growing a business sometimes requires thinking outside the box. UPDATE: The launch has been postponed — again. SpaceX says it is now scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, at 6:03 p.m. ET.Trailblazing tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has something to prove. Earlier this month, Musk’s SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket and attempted to land it on a floating platform in the Atlantic ocean. The 14-story-tall rocket took off without a hitch, but it botched its landing, bouncing off the deck of the barge.”Close, but no cigar,” is how Musk described the failed landing. And for any entrepreneur worth his salt, “close” simply isn’t good enough.SpaceX will try again today. At 6:10 p.m. EST, a new Falcon 9 rocket will lift off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Like last time, the rocket will soar up into space, then use GPS tracking to land itself smoothly on the platform.In case you’re not familiar, SpaceX is a company Musk founded in 2002 to “revolutionize space technology, with the ultimate goal of enabling people to live on other planets.”Related: Google, Fidelity Invest $1 Billion in SpaceX to Spread Internet Access Across the GlobeIn addition to launching and hopefully landing the rocket, it will carry the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) “Deep Space Climate Observatory.” The instrument will detach once the pair reach space. It will be used to monitor solar winds generated by the sun that can cause disruption of telecommunications and GPS on Earth.You can watch the launch event right here at 6:10 p.m.:Related: Elon Musk to Build ‘Hyperloop’ Track, Likely in Texas Free Webinar | Sept. 9: The Entrepreneur’s Playbook for Going Globalcenter_img Register Now » February 8, 2015last_img read more