Dick Jauron2008BUF25 Bill BelichickNE1621+164+761 COACHTEAMSEASONSPLAYOFF WINSBEFORE 2015DURING 2015CHANCE OF FIRING Ron RiveraCAR51+145+1543 Pete CarrollSEA67+276-37<1 Chuck PaganoIND43+173-316 Mike ZimmerMIN20+4+995 Dan QuinnATL10—+6<1 Dave Campo2001DAL39 Jim TomsulaSF10—-103<1 Jason GarrettDAL61+141-11735 John Mackovic1985KC28 Mike McCarthyGB107+136+202 Mike PettineCLE20+32-8319 Herman Edwards2007KC47% Chan Gailey2011BUF28 The idea here is to measure what sort of team performance, somewhat devoid of context, would get a typical coach fired. You’ll notice in the table that Marvin Lewis — a coach pretty unlikely to be fired — is third on this list; that’s mainly because he’s been with the Bengals for 13 years and has zero playoff wins. The real world context is that while that is a broadly undesirable outcome, the Bengals being the Bengals, the team has more than exceeded the existential target of being Not The Browns. (You can see the lasting improvement that Lewis has brought to Cincinnati in the “before 2015″ column, which shows how much the team’s Elo rating improved between the time he got the job and the beginning of this season.) So Marv, like Chip, is probably fine, for reasons that are very different but just as amusing.As for Kelly, he’s in his third year of his tenure with a club, after winning zero playoff games in Years 1 and 2 — a scenario that has traditionally been the death zone for NFL coaches. Coaches in that predicament must show progress to keep their jobs: Roughly two-thirds of surviving coaches improved their team’s Elo rating (relative to preseason expectations) in Year 3, while nearly three-quarters of those fired oversaw an Elo decline from the preseason. So the Eagles’ 86.4-point Elo drop this season doesn’t look good for Kelly — since 1970, only 15 of the 128 coaches in Kelly’s position (Year 3 with a team, no previous playoff victories) oversaw a bigger drop-off in Elo through 11 games of the schedule, and two-thirds of them were fired before the following season began. John FoxCHI10—+50<1 Sometimes coaches still survive odds like Kelly’s. This table shows the coaches whose jobs were in the most jeopardy 11 games into a season yet went on to keep the job. But if Kelly does manage to stick with Philly beyond this season, he would set a new mark for unlikely job retention.Kelly’s trajectory wasn’t always so negative. After Philly beat Dallas in early November to make their record 4-4, there was only about a 5 percent chance that Kelly would be fired according to the model. But the Eagles’ current three-game losing streak has caused his probability of being fired to skyrocket: Things look bad for Chip Kelly and his Eagles. Fans are calling for his head; discord is rampant in the locker room; Kelly seems to be linked to every college job not nailed down or on fire; and the Eagles have found themselves on the receiving end of consecutive beatdowns so humiliating that mayor-turned-governor-turned-commentator Ed Rendell — a man last seen in public supplication outside a McDonald’s, begging for a McRib — was so ashamed that he hid his head in a bag. If Kelly is the NFL’s mad scientist, the lab is on fire.In the short term, Kelly is probably safe. He has two years left on his contract after 2015, and his newfound authority over Philadelphia’s roster — wrestled away from Howie Roseman in a power struggle in January — makes him a little more entrenched than your typical head coach. But the Eagles have also been one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams, by both the eye test and fancier metrics. So while Kelly the personnel czar still has some rope, we can entertain ourselves with a thought exercise wondering just how often such a disastrous season traditionally leads to a coaching change.To measure just what it takes for a coach to get fired in the NFL, I trained a classification model on data for every NFL coach since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, looking for the factors that predict whether he’ll return the following season. The best model, in terms of having the lowest “out-of-bag error,” accounts for how long a coach has been with his team, the team’s outlook going into the season, and how many playoff wins the coach has recorded during his tenure with the team. Coaches are typically given more leeway early, with firings peaking three to six years into their tenures, and unsurprisingly, playoff wins buy more job security. We used our Elo ratings as a proxy for team outlook; whatever you think of its predictive capabilities, Elo is a fantastic gauge of team perception and expectations.According to that historical rubric, no current coach1So, excluding Joe Philbin and Ken Whisenhunt, both of whom were fired earlier this season. should be feeling the heat more than Kelly, whose indicators have traditionally led to termination a shade over half the time (through 11 games): Gus BradleyJAX30+8-1851 Mike McCoySD31+32-1055 Neill Armstrong1980CHI22 Sean PaytonNO96+94-7619 Bill O’BrienHOU20+120+10<1 Jack Del RioOAK10—+37<1 Gary KubiakDEN10—+66<1 Sam Wyche1994TB30 Jim CaldwellDET20+66-645 John Mazur1971NE29 Rex RyanBUF10—-22<1 Jeff FisherSTL40+124-5613 Chip KellyPHI30+144-8652% Lovie SmithTB20-59+4517 COACHYEARTEAMCHANCE OF FIRING John HarbaughBAL810+117-741 Marvin LewisCIN130+184+10140 Dave McGinnis2002ARI21 Bruce AriansARI30+120+125<1 Tom CoughlinNYG128+81+217 Andy ReidKC30+185+841 Todd BowlesNYJ10—+34<1 Jay GrudenWAS20-28+55<1 Mike TomlinPIT95-6+24 Jim Hanifan1983CRD26 ELO CHANGE There’s still time for Kelly to turn things around. For one, the average coach who was fired since 1970 was assigned a 76 percent probability by the model at this stage of the season, so Kelly, at 52 percent, has some room left to fall. Second, despite their abiding awfulness, the Eagles somehow have a 15 percent chance of winning the NFC East, which would put a little shine on the turd. Although one of the most similar coaching seasons to Kelly’s2In terms of the arc his probability of being fired has taken each week. resulted in Wade Phillips being fired by the Denver Broncos in 1994, other similar years belonged to coaches who held on for another year (Bruce Coslet with the 1993 Jets) or even unexpectedly went to a Super Bowl a year later (Jim Fassel with the 2000 Giants).However the season plays out, Kelly will probably hang onto his job — particularly given the personnel control matter we mentioned earlier. But based on what typically gets coaches fired, Kelly should be thankful that he’ll (probably) remain employed when the smoke clears on this garbage fire, because historical precedent says it should pretty much be a coin flip whether he gets swept out with the ashes. read more

first_imgWILMINGTON, MA — The Wilmington High School Varsity Softball team (12-5) defeated Lowell Catholic by a score of 1-0 on Friday, May 24, 2019.Both team’s pitchers threw three hitters and had great defense behind them. Neither team could put forth serious threats.In the top of the first inning, Ashley Crawford doubled. She advanced to third and eventually scored on passed balls.Chase Andersen made two excellent plays at third base and was a vital part of a combination play in the bottom of the sixth that helped to preserve the victory. With two outs, Lowell Catholic’s number two hitter doubled to left field and was awarded third on an obstruction call. With the third hitter at the plate, she attempted a steal of home, but was erased on a 2-5-3 play. Ashley Crawford received the pitch from Ally Moran and she chased the runner back to third before throwing the ball back to third basemen Chase Andersen. Andersen forced the runner back towards home plate and threw to first basemen Bella Kieran covering the plate for the third out of the inning.Ally Moran retired the side in order in the seventh for another shutout victory for the Wildcats.Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email wilmingtonapple@gmail.com.Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedWHS SOFTBALL: Wildcats Win Back-To-Back Games, Moran Gives Up 3 Hits While Striking Out 22In “Sports”WHS SOFTBALL: Wildcats Defeat Lexington, Moran Picks Up Another WinIn “Sports”WHS SOFTBALL: Wildcats Lose To Melrose By 1 Run, Storm Back With 12-Run Win Over Greater LowellIn “Sports”last_img read more

first_img Free Webinar | Sept 5: Tips and Tools for Making Progress Toward Important Goals June 24, 2014 For all its good, sometimes advances in technology can create new forms of paranoia. Take drones for example. They can be used for taking selfies (“dronies”) or walking the dog, or perhaps someday to deliver goods to-door-door. On the flip side, they can and have been used by the military to spy on and attack people.For those who fear being targeted by anyone — military, private organization or civilian — with a drone, there’s one startup that wants to ease your anxieties. Enter: Domestic Drone Countermeasures (DDC). The group has a Kickstarter page where it describes the threat drones pose and the solution the company has developed.”Drones are becoming more capable all the time and this is why it’s alarming,” the Oregon-based startup says. “They fly with payloads like still cameras, video cameras, infrared detectors, thermal detectors, among other things, and they are already being used for surveillance.Related: This Tiny, Whip-Tailed Robot Can Administer Meds Anywhere In the Body”In the past year,” the company continues, “we developed hardware that can detect drones and have filed patents to safeguard our technology.”The anti-drone system consists of three boxes: a primary command and control module and two detection sensor nodes. Basically, these boxes use a simple Wi-Fi connection to create a mesh grid network that can detect drones flying nearby. When a drone is detected, the system can either sound an alarm or send a notification to a mobile device.For a look at how it works, here’s a video:Related: A ‘Smart’ Cup That Knows What You’re Drinking — And Counts the CaloriesThe command and control module can communicate with nodes up to 200 feet away, the company says. The nodes can usually detect drones within 50 feet in all directions. So, the more nodes that are installed in an area, the larger the detection grid becomes. The DDC’s anti-drone system is not equipped to counter military drones, which “fly too high and are too sophisticated,” the company says. “Our intent is to keep your privacy safe from your neighbors and people you may not know who are flying small drones near your home or office. The Personal Drone Detection Systems are intended to counter small, personal drones with cameras and other sensors that are not being regulated.”The DDC’s Kickstarter page is aiming to raise $8,500 over the next 21 days. So far, backers have pledged only about $1,400. DDC says it aims to start shipping the system by May 2015.Related: A Venture Capital Firm Just Named an Algorithm to Its Board of Directors 3 min readcenter_img Attend this free webinar and learn how you can maximize efficiency while getting the most critical things done right. Register Now »last_img read more